1. Executive Summary

1. Geopolitical risks “erupting at multiple points”, oil prices step up again: Yemen’s Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port, oil fields and airport, and Saudi Aramco conducted its large-scale evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters. According to The New York Times (10/21), the US and Israeli militaries have drafted a “short-duration, high-intensity” strike plan against Iran to be executed after the US midterm elections (11/3), with Trump threatening an “epic wrath” operation; Iran in turn threatened to attack Gulf undersea communication cables if struck again, and issued an “ultimatum” to Middle Eastern countries. During 10/21-23, multiple “non-compliant” tankers struck mines or were attacked in the Strait and the Persian Gulf (on 10/23 two supertankers hit mines, carrying over 4.5 million barrels of crude). Attacks in and around the Strait have reached 28 incidents in October, the worst month on record since 2017; weekly Strait transit volume remained about 70% below pre-conflict levels. Brent closed at USD 116.72/barrelon 10/23 (+3.14%, a five-month high) and WTI at USD 103.27/barrel, with both up on the week. Foreign ministers of eight nations meeting in Istanbul on 10/23 unanimously opposed military strikes and called for restoring Strait passage; Iran’s foreign minister said on 10/25 that Strait management “will never be the same as before” — the watershed between an effective blockade and restored passage has yet to appear.
2. Fish meal hits an all-time high: Steamed-grade (super steam) fish meal rose another CNY 500/ton in week 43 to CNY 24,900-25,000/ton, Japanese-grade at CNY 23,900-24,000/ton rising in tandem, and domestic fish meal (Shandong, 65% protein) up CNY 800 to CNY 18,800/ton; port inventories fell to roughly 120,000 tons. Peruvian new-season forward sales held at CNF USD 3,450/ton; Peru separately announced a 15-day exploratory anchoveta fishery (no quota). China’s September imports of Peruvian fish meal were only 15,900 tons (-83% YoY).
3. Choline chloride shows softening signals at high levels: Shandong market 50% quotes fell about CNY 200/ton from the prior week, with mainstream producers (Hebei Dazheng, Shandong Enbei, etc.) cutting list prices by CNY 200-300/ton in unison, though all plants continue running at reduced load; the core driver is the pullback of trimethylamine in Shandong to CNY 6,800-7,600/ton — the “supply-driven” price-hike logic is marginally weakening.
4. Chemicals mixed: MTBE benchmark price CNY 8,162.5/ton (-0.70% WoW,consecutive pullback from high levels); methanol rebounded to CNY 4,016.67/ton ; EO (East China) flat at CNY 9,700/ton; ECH soft at CNY 11,200/ton. The 10/23 crude surge lifted chemical prices broadly, with short-term volatility increasing.
5. Newly cited research this issue: FASEB Journal (online 10/16) on sex-specific metabolic programming from maternal betaine supplementation; Frontiers in Pharmacology (October 2026) on betaine alleviating MASLD via the m6A-ANKHD1 axis; European Journal of Nutrition (10/7) on a betaine RCT in overweight women. On the cosmetics side, October brought a dense run of new regulations: Zhejiang’s 20 measures, the toothpaste classification catalogue, and consultations on freeze-dried/single-dose packaging standards.

2. Segment News & Analysis

2.1 Betaine Series (Feed/Food/Cosmetic/Pharma/Agri Grades) & Betaine HCl

• Market dynamics: Substitution demand in feed continues amid record-high fish meal; cosmetic- and food-grade downstream restocking on an as-needed basis; betaine series price trend firm-to-stronger. Betaine HCl 95% flat in week 43, with export FOB quotes stabilizing in tandem.
• Newly cited research (first cited this issue, all verified):

1. FASEB Journal(published online 2026-10-16, Vol 40 Issue 20): Martín-Chamorro RA, Pomar CA, Palou A, Picó C, Rodríguez AM, et al. — maternal betaine supplementation during lactation drives sex-specific metabolic programming in rats, affecting FGF21 signaling and energy balance (e72390). Under maternal Western diet, betaine improved lipid profiles in female offspring but increased fat accretion in male offspring, suggesting early-life nutritional interventions must account for sex differences.
2. 〔Published 2026-10-16〕
3. Frontiers in Pharmacology(October 2026, DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2026.1962619): betaine alleviates MASLD via hepatic m6A-dependent translational regulation — multi-omics identifies the m6A-ANKHD1 axis as the key mechanism, with ANKHD1 a potential therapeutic target, and implications for improving hepatic lipid metabolism in animal nutrition.
4. 〔Accepted 2026-10-05, published in October issue〕
5. European Journal of Nutrition: Chmurzynska A, et al. randomized controlled trial (3 g/day × 8 weeks, overweight/obese premenopausal women) — between-group change in PBMC citrate synthase was significant and plasma catalase activity rose significantly, adding human evidence to betaine’s “mitochondrial + antioxidant” profile.
6. 〔Published 2026-10-07〕
   • Price trend: Mainstream producers of cosmetic- and food-grade betaine are holding prices firm; anhydrous betaine and betaine HCl are firm-to-stronger in tandem.

2.2 L-Carnitine

• Price trend: Food-grade L-carnitine 98% mainstream brand quotes flat in week 43, holding a high-level consolidation pattern; transactions have entered an expected stabilization phase after the prior run-up.
• Supply side: Jinxuan’s cyanide-free route and Chengda’s 3,561 t/yr expansion have yet to come on stream (background, previously reported); near-term supply remains tight.
• Demand logic: The three clinical trial guidelines for special medical foods (muscle atrophy, dyslipidemia, obesity; 2026-09-30, background) continue to open a registration pathway for component-type SMFs; no new policy changes this week.

2.3 Choline Chloride

• Market dynamics (inflection signal): Shandong market 50% choline chloride fell about CNY 200/ton on 10/20 versus 10/14; Hebei Dazheng, Shandong Enbei, Aokete and Liaoning Zhongxin cut list prices by CNY 200-300/ton in unison, while all plants maintain reduced load. The 60% grade weakened in tandem.
• Driver shift: Trimethylamine in Shandong fell to CNY 6,800-7,600/ton , weakening the cost floor; the “supply-driven” price-hike logic is marginally loosening and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is rising.
• Trade-remedy progress: US CVD preliminary determination deadline ≤ 2026-11-23, AD preliminary expected around 12/1 (background); Indian low-price cargoes departing port in late October may enter the European market in Q1 next year (background, previously reported).

2.4 Creatine Monohydrate & Sodium Sarcosinate

• Market dynamics: Creatine monohydrate transaction prices remain at high levels, with some producers’  times already booked into November— demand strength plus tight supply is now explicit; the SunSirs spot market continues to show high-level tiering (a widening spread between standard premium grades and high-purity/micronized grades).
• Sodium sarcosinate: Mild-cleansing and pharma-grade demand logic continues; quotes stable; no major new developments this week.

2.5 Feed Ingredients & Aquaculture (Fish Meal / Soybean Meal)

• Fish meal at an all-time high: Steamed-grade CNY 24,900-25,000/ton , Japanese-grade 23,900-24,000 (+500), domestic Shandong 65% protein 18,800 (+800); port inventories about 120,000 tons (10/21, down 2,900 tons WoW, of which Huangpu 72,200 tons). September imports of Peruvian fish meal were 15,900 tons , with October arrivals expected to fall further.
• Peru developments: The north-central Season B has been cancelled (reported in prior issues); the southern season (7/1-10/4) landed only 4,300 tons against a 251,000-ton quota, essentially a write-off; this week’s new development is the officially announced 15-day exploratory anchoveta fishery (no quota), whose signal value for resource assessment and the 2027 opening season is being watched. New-season forward sales at CNF USD 3,450/ton.
• Demand-side concern: The surge in fish-meal/feed costs combined with weak pond-gate prices for mandarin fish, largemouth bass and hairy crab creates a “double squeeze on margins”, reducing aquaculture’s capacity to absorb costs — over 40 feed mills raised prices since September (background); specialty feed demand may be curbed.
• Soybean meal: Week 43 saw weak range-bound trading, mainstream CNY 2,900-3,200/ton nationwide (Northeast above 3,400, East China around 2,900); “falling costs + high inventories + weak demand” dominate, with feeble rebounds.

3. Key Data Dashboard

4. Key Events of the Week

1. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure; Saudi Aramco’s large-scale Dhahran evacuation: Yanbu port, oil fields and the airport were struck; corporate-level security risk assessments were materially raised, lifting the floor of the risk premium.
2. US and Israel draft a “short-duration, high-intensity” post-midterm strike plan against Iran(New York Times, 10/21); Trump threatened an “epic wrath” operation and said the US “could strike again at any time”; US intelligence indicates Iranian plots to assassinate US diplomats have entered an advanced stage, and the State Department is withdrawing personnel from several Middle East embassies.
3. Iran threatens Gulf undersea communication cables and issues an “ultimatum” to Middle Eastern countries: if war reignites, countries must halt all support for the US or be designated “hostile nations”; during 10/21-23 the IRGC successively struck/detonated multiple “non-compliant” tankers (two supertankers mined on 10/23 carrying over 4.5 million barrels).
4. 28 Strait attacks in October, the worst record since 2017; the eight-nation foreign ministers’ meeting in Istanbul (10/23) opposed military strikes and called for restoring safe passage; Iran’s foreign minister said Strait management “will never be the same as before”.
5. Fish meal prices hit an all-time high: after consecutive weekly gains, prices rose another CNY 500/ton this week while port inventories fell to a year-low of ~120,000 tons; Peru announced a 15-day exploratory anchoveta fishery (no quota), sending a policy signal for the 2027 opening season.
6. Choline chloride softens at high levels: synchronized pullback in both market and producer quotes, directly driven by falling trimethylamine costs; with the whole industry still at low load, it remains to be seen whether this is a trend turn or merely high-level volatility.
7. Dense run of new cosmetics rules in October: Zhejiang’s 20 regulatory reform measures (effective 11/15), publication of the Toothpaste Classification Catalogue (effective 2027-05-01), consultations on freeze-dried/single-dose packaging standards, and the deadline (10/25) for comments on the new-ingredient delineation guideline.
8. Three new betaine studies published in short order: FASEB Journal on early-life metabolic programming (sex differences), Frontiers in Pharmacology on the m6A-ANKHD1 axis alleviating MASLD, and the EJN RCT in overweight women — further evidence for pharma/food-grade marketing narratives.